The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which just passed the U.S. Senate, is being pitched by many in the GOP as a once-in-a-generation tax overhaul. Supporters say it will put money back in Americans’ pockets and restore the United States’ economy.
And that’s not really surprising since for a while now, President Trump has promised “the biggest, most beautiful tax cut you’ve ever seen,” insisting that families and businesses alike will reap the rewards.
But as the Republican-led Congress rushes to meet a chosen July 4 deadline to pass Trump’s self-dubbed “one big, beautiful bill,” critics of the legislation — including some Republican lawmakers — are sounding the alarm about who stands to lose.
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The stakes are high for U.S. taxpayers: Will the bill deliver on Trump’s promises, or hurt the middle class in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy?
Here’s more of what you need to know.
Elon Musk against the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
Trump ally, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, formerly of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) fame, has recently emerged as a vocal opponent of the GOP’s mega reconciliation legislation.
“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” Musk wrote on X this week..
Musk also decried that the “utterly insane and destructive bill “will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause irreparable harm to our energy and technology sectors.”
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina has also voiced concerns about the “Big Beautiful Bill,” particularly its proposed reductions in Medicaid funding. Tillis announced earlier this week that he won’t seek reelection after voting against the bill in a recent key procedural Senate vote.
Meanwhile, recent polling shows public opinion is running against the bill.
According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, only 27% of Americans believe the big bill will help people like them, while 51% think it will hurt the middle class.
The Kaiser Family Foundation’s latest survey echoes those concerns: 56% of respondents say they are “very worried” or “somewhat worried” that the bill’s benefits will primarily go to the wealthy and corporations, rather than to ordinary families.
What’s in Trump’s tax bill?
Republicans are framing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) as an expansion of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which cut corporate and individual tax rates, doubled the standard deduction, and temporarily reduced rates for most income tax brackets.
However, studies show that the so-called “Trump tax cuts,” many of which would expire at the end of this year if Congress doesn’t act, also ballooned the deficit and disproportionately benefited the wealthy.
The new Trump tax bill would go further, with deeper cuts to so-called “safety net” programs like Medicaid, additional corporate rate reductions, and a sweeping deregulation agenda.
Here are some key points about the OBBBA:
- Makes 2017 Tax Cuts Permanent: Extends and makes permanent key TCJA provisions, including lower individual tax rates, higher standard deduction, and business deductions
- Creates New Temporary Tax Deductions: Introduces tax breaks for auto loan interest on U.S.-made vehicles, tips, and overtime pay for certain workers
- Expands or Modifies Existing Tax Credits: Increases the child tax credit, expands employer-provided childcare credits, and introduces a new bonus deduction for older adults
- Maintains or Increases Estate Tax Exemption: Keeps the estate tax exemption at a higher level, allowing more wealth to be transferred tax-free
- Reduces or Eliminates Key Tax Benefits: Repeals or phases out certain clean energy tax credits like federal solar tax credits and the EV tax credit, and tightens rules for other deductions
- Changes ‘Safety Net’ Programs: Implements new work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks for Medicaid and SNAP, which could result in reduced coverage for millions and potentially make it harder for some people to get food benefits.
- Creates New Child Savings Accounts: Establishes tax-deferred “Trump Savings Accounts” for newborns.
- Increases the Federal Deficit and Raises Debt Limit: Projected to add trillions to the federal deficit over a decade, according to nonpartisan budget estimates. The bill would also raise the debt limit to either $ 4 or $ 5 trillion.
*This is not an all-inclusive list of what’s in the bill. It would also fund mass deportations, border security, and military spending, and impact student loans.
Trump’s proposed “big, beautiful bill” would cap federal student loan amounts, end subsidized loans, increase repayment periods, and restrict payment pauses and forbearance.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” would reduce revenues by about $4.5 trillion, add nearly $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next ten years, and cut spending by an estimated $1.2 trillion.
But the White House and the President’s Council of Economic Advisers argue that their own models — which assume faster economic growth — would lower deficits.
Medicaid cuts?
The Senate bill proposes substantial changes to Medicaid, including stricter work requirements for able-bodied adults, more frequent reviews of eligibility, and significant reductions in federal funding.
If passed, these changes would mark the most significant cuts to the program since its inception.
Another key concern? The CBO estimates the changes could leave nearly 12 million more people uninsured by 2034.
Sen. Tillis has argued that these Medicaid changes would burden on residents in his state, North Carolina, and lead to significant cuts in healthcare coverage for many, putting additional strain on hospitals and rural health services.
It’s worth noting that several other Republican senators — including Susan Collins of Maine, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Jim Justice of West Virginia, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — also expressed some concerns regarding the Medicaid cuts in the Senate version of Trump’s big bill.
Elon Musk criticized provisions in the bill that would impose new taxes on wind and solar projects, claiming they would “destroy millions of jobs” and harm the energy sector.
Note: The bill cuts tax breaks for solar, wind, and EV purchases, which some say could potentially slow adoption and make the technologies less affordable.
On X, Musk also threathened to create a new political party if Congress passes the bill. Meanwhile, Tesla shares dropped in pre-market trading Tuesday, as the billionaire labeled the GOP the “porky pig party.”
Trump’s tax bill: Who really benefits and who loses?
On paper, the bill offers some short-term relief for middle-class taxpayers.
- The House GOP version of the OBBBA would permanently extend the doubled standard deduction and add some new tax credits from 2025 to 2028.
- The Senate version would make the federal child tax credit (CTC) permanent and increase its maximum value, with inflation adjustments in future years.
- Temporary tax relief for overtime pay, tip income, and car loan interest is also attractive to some.
However, several organizations note that the long-term benefits of the bill’s provisions skew toward higher earners.
According to the Yale Budget Lab, the top 20% (those making over $120,000 a year) will gain about $5,700 more each year, while the poorest 20% (those making under $13,350) will lose about $700 a year.
- The CBO found similar results: the most affluent households could get an extra $12,000 a year, but the poorest lose about $1,600.
- Middle-income families gain a modest $500 to $1,000 a year.
- The top 1% could keep an extra $78,650 each year, while the average family in the bottom fifth would only see a $160 tax cut.
A White House fact sheet says, “Hardworking Americans and families will see an average increase in take-home pay of OVER $10,000 per year. Historic Tax Relief for Workers: 15% tax cut for Americans earning between $30,000 and $80,000 per year.”
Based on that, a typical middle earner (someone making between $30,000 and $80,000) might see their paycheck increase by approximately $35 to $70 each pay period, depending on their specific situation.
And with Medicaid and food stamp cuts, added to tariffs and inflation, many middle-class families could feel worse off, facing new financial strains and reduced access to care.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act: What comes next?
The OBBBA, Trump’s signature legislation for this second term, is racing toward the finish line.
However, Democrats, some former Trump allies, and several independent organizations point out that the bill appears to be a significant win for the wealthy. At the same time, most working families and households with lower incomes could end up with less support.
With all the back-and-forth and so much at stake, it’s important to watch what happens next and stay informed about what the 2025 Trump tax reform could mean for you and your money.
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