Volume was thin Wednesday as many participants logged off early ahead of the long holiday weekend.
Stocks opened the day mixed following worse-than-expected jobs data, and failed to make any major moves throughout the day ahead of President Donald Trump’s looming tax bill deadline.
Before the open, data from ADP Research showed the U.S. private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June – a big miss compared to the 100,000 additions economists expected. This also marked the first contraction since March 2023.
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“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” says Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.
The biggest job losses came from professional and business services and health and education, which shed a combined 108,000. This was partially offset by growth in the leisure and hospitality industry.
“The surprising miss on the ADP report this morning calls into question what we will see in the jobs report tomorrow morning, which will be released a day earlier than normal, due to the July 4th holiday,” says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.
Zaccarelli notes that one of the reasons the Federal Reserve has been able to take a wait-and-see approach with interest rates is that the job market has held up so well. But “if that were to change, then the Fed may be forced to move earlier than they would like.”
According to CME Group’s FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 23% chance the Fed will cut by a quarter-percentage point at its meeting later this month – up from 21% one day ago.
U.S., Vietnam ink a trade deal
In addition to jobs data, Wall Street is keeping a close eye on Capitol Hill. Earlier today, Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill narrowly passed a procedural vote in the House of Representatives. It now moves to a floor vote for potential passage ahead of the president’s self-imposed July 4 deadline.
However, it’s not certain if there are enough votes to get it over the line – at least in its current form. The massive tax cut and spending bill is projected to add trillions to the deficit – and make deep cuts to popular programs such as Medicaid – and this has several House Republicans hesitant to support it.
In more encouraging D.C. news, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. has reached a trade deal with Vietnam. According to the president, the agreement includes a 20% tariff on goods coming into the U.S. from Vietnam and a 40% tax on goods that other countries are shipping through Vietnam to the United States.
This comes ahead of the July 9 expiration of his retaliatory tariff pause, which will send several tariff rates soaring to their Liberation Day levels.
Centene sinks on Medicaid woes
In single-stock news, Nike (NKE) jumped 4.2% after Trump announced the trade deal with Vietnam – a top importer and manufacturing hub for the athletic apparel and footwear maker.
Today’s gain made Nike the best Dow Jones stock today, while UnitedHealth Group (UNH) was the worst with its 5.6% loss.
UNH was hit by headwinds from fellow insurer Centene (CNC), which plunged 40.3% – making it the worst S&P 500 stock on Wednesday – after the company withdrew its full-year guidance.
In addition to rising Medicaid costs, Centene said that preliminary health insurance marketplace data for 2025 shows overall market growth in at least 22 states “is lower than expected.”
The company says it expects a roughly $1.8 billion hit to its top line as a result, which equates to a $2.75 impact on earnings per share.
The news earned CNC at least one downgrade, with UBS Global Research analyst A.J. Rice lowering his rating on the health care stock to Neutral (Hold) from Buy. The analyst also slashed his price target to $45 from $80.
“With the unexpected risk adjustment results in Marketplace and persistent Medicaid cost trends, the company’s near-term earnings have been significantly reduced,” Rice says. “While the company will look to reprice its exchange book, earnings will be on a smaller membership base.”
S&P 500, Nasdaq close at new record highs
As for the main indexes, the S&P 500 was up 0.5% at 6,227 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% to 20,393 – new record closing highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.02% to 44,484.
As a reminder, the stock and bond markets will close early tomorrow, July 3, at 1 pm and 2 pm Eastern Standard Time, respectively. Friday, July 4, is a full stock market holiday in honor of Independence Day.
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